Tuesday, May 24, 2011

LinkedIn stock option risk

Looking through the LinkedIn S-1 filing I noted that there are about 18 million stock options issued. The low exercise price (relative to the IPO price or better) will make it very tempting for the employees and insiders to cash out once the six month lock-up period is over. Expect downward pressure on the stock price when these options get exercised.  

The latest LinkedIn S-1A, dated May 17, 2011 shows the break out of Options Granted, when and at what price:
Option Grant Dates
  
Number of
Shares
Underlying
Options


Exercise
Price Per
Share

  
Common Stock
Fair Value Per
Share at
Grant Date

February 2009
  

5,166,362
(1) 

$
2.32
  
  
$
2.32
  
April 2009
  

75,500
  


2.32
  
  

2.32
  
June 2009
  

387,000
  


2.32
  
  

2.32
  
August 2009
  

609,000
  


2.32
  
  

2.32
  
September 2009
  

719,500
  


3.50
  
  

3.50
  
November 2009
  

2,556,000
  


3.50
  
  

3.50
  
February 2010
  

1,361,450
  


4.80
  
  

4.80
  
June 2010
  

1,654,522
  


6.20
  
  

6.20
  
September 2010
  

1,459,266
  


8.27
  
  

8.27
  
November 2010
  

361,675
  


8.97
  
  

8.97
  
December 2010
  

445,820
  


14.46
  
  

14.46
  
February 2011
  

1,951,880
  


19.63
  
  

19.63
  
April 2011
  

1,559,080
  


22.59
  
  

22.59
  



(1)

Includes 2,429,750 stock options that were repriced on a one-for-one basis to $2.32 per share. Please see the section below titled “Stock Option Repricing.”

 Based upon the assumed initial public offering price of $43.50 per share, the aggregate intrinsic value of options outstanding as of March 31, 2011 was approximately $610.6 million, of which approximately $208.8 million related to vested options and approximately $401.8 million related to unvested options.

While I think the business fundamentals and long term prospects for the company are strong, the number and price of these stock options may create a high level of price volatility for the company’s shares in the short term, especially since the float is thin; i.e. the IPO put less than 10% of the company’s equity in play.  

Proceed with caution!

If you want to read more (and there’s a lot more), here’s a link to the S-1 on the sec.gov site: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1271024/000119312511142213/ds1a.htm

1 comment:

  1. People who take linkedin and facebook seriously deserve to suffer serious career damage. Social networks are for social retards. They are brought to you by aghadhimmics whose patron saint was Walt Whitman, the guy who only had sex with himself and believed in the Gnostic Gospels. Those who use lint tin and futz book are narcissist masochist clowns governed by affectation. Is a vulture capitalist who only invests in firms which appear as friends of friends really exercising the fiduciary responsibility he is paid for? Do we forget a quarter century ago these banksters patted themselves on the back that firing Steve Jobs was the right thing to do? Or when Gerry Carmen's GSA foisted IBM mainframes on everyone in the government just as the PC and interactive computing were dawning? The same nuts who consider it modern to make emailing a symptom to your doctor into a HIPPA violation. Or when they relied on the witchcraft of technical analysis instead of the hard work of market fundamental, stealing instead of inventing even that, and concentrating more on the imitation than substance, causing the markets to crash? Or banksters who shell game inconsistent products, shifting fees and agreements by surprise, because their autopilot brains were unable to comprehend what real service is? How can you trust people who submit to affectations instead of genuine reality? Given how such fads ran amok in the recent crisis, such individuals should be denied serious employment in the future. Social networking is a bubble that needs to be shut down before it bankrupts all of us. That’s why all the idiot hedge funds donated to Obama!

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